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When the Fed tinkers with the money supply, it affects not just one or two specific markets, like housing policy does, but every single market in the entire economy. When central banks like the Federal Reserve inflate, they provide banks with more money to lend, even though the public has not provided any more savings. Banks respond by lowering interest rates to draw in new borrowers.
The borrowers see the lower interest rate and believe that it signals that consumers are more interested in delayed consumption relative to immediate consumption.
Borrowers then begin to invest in those longer-term projects, which are now relatively more desirable given the lower interest rate. The problem, however, is that the demand for those longer-term projects is not really there.
The public is not more interested in future consumption, even though the interest rate signals suggest otherwise. These longer-term processes are then abandoned, resulting in falling asset prices both capital goods and financial assets, such as the stock prices of the relevant companies and unemployed labor in sectors associated with the capital goods industries.
The bust is the economy going through a refitting and reshuffling of capital and labor as it eliminates mistakes made during the boom. The important points here are that the artificial boom is when the mistakes were made, and it is during the bust that those mistakes are corrected. From to about , the Federal Reserve pursued the most expansionary monetary policy since at least the s, pushing interest rates far below their natural rate.
In January of the federal funds rate, the major interest rate that the Fed targets, stood at 6. Just 23 months later, after 12 successive cuts, the rate stood at a mere 1. The rate was so low during this period that the real Federal Funds rate — the nominal rate minus the rate of inflation — was negative for two and a half years.
This meant that, in effect, banks were being paid to borrow money! In order to maintain that low Fed Funds rate for that five year period, the Fed had to increase the money supply significantly.
One common measure of the money supply grew by It is unlikely that lots of very similar bad investments are the resut of mass irrationality, just as large traffic accidents are more likely the result of malfunctioning traffic signals than lots of people forgetting how to drive overnight. With such an expansionary monetary policy, the housing market was sent contradictory and incorrect signals. On one hand, housing and housing-related industries were given a giant green light to expand.
It is as if the Fed supplied them with an abundance of lumber, and encouraged them to build their economic house as big as they pleased. But the public did not.
Interest rates were not low because the public was in the mood to save; they were low because the Fed had made them so by fiat. Worse, Fed policy gave the would-be suppliers of capital — those who might have been tempted to save — a giant red light.
With rates so low, they had no incentive to put their money in the bank for others to borrow. So the economic house was slapped together with what appeared to be an unlimited supply of lumber. It was built higher and higher, drawing resources from the rest of the economy. But it had no foundation. Because the capital did not reflect underlying consumer preferences, there was no support for such a large house.
The weaknesses in the foundation were eventually exposed and the story skyscraper, built on a foundation made for a single-family home, began to teeter. It eventually fell in the autumn of It is true that easy credit financed a consumer-borrowing binge, a mergers-and-acquisitions binge and an auto binge. But the bulk of the credit went to housing. Government intervention in the housing market dates back to at least the Great Depression.
The more recent government initiatives relevant to the current recession began in the Clinton administration. Since then, the federal government has adopted a variety of policies intended to make housing more affordable for lower and middle income groups and various minorities.
Among the government actions, those dealing with government-sponsored enterprises active in mortgage markets were central. They were chartered by the federal government, and although nominally privately owned until the onset of the bust in , they were granted a number of government privileges in addition to carrying an implicit promise of government support should they ever get into trouble.
Fannie and Freddie did not actually originate most of the bad loans that comprised the housing crisis. Loans were made by banks and mortgage companies that knew they could sell those loans in the secondary mortgage market where Fannie and Freddie would buy and repackage them to sell to other investors. Fannie and Freddie also invented a number of the low down-payment and other creative, high-risk types of loans that came into use during the housing boom.
The loan originators were willing to offer these kinds of loans because they knew that Fannie and Freddie stood ready to buy them up. With the implicit promise of government support behind them, the risk was being passed on from the originators to the taxpayers. If homeowners defaulted, the buyers of the mortgages would be harmed, not the originators. The presence of Fannie and Freddie in the mortgage market dramatically distorted the incentives for private actors such as the banks.
When banks saw that Fannie and Freddie were willing to buy virtually any loan made to under-qualified borrowers, they made a lot more of them. Greed is no more to blame for these bad mortgages than gravity is to blame for plane crashes. Gravity is always present, just like greed.
Many of the new mortgages with low or even zero-down payments were designed in response to this pressure. Not only were lots of funds available to lend, and not only was government implicitly subsidizing the purchase of mortgages, but it was also encouraging lenders to find more borrowers who previously were thought unable to afford a mortgage.
Partnerships among Fannie and Freddie, mortgage companies, community action groups and legislators combined to make mortgages available to many people who should never have had them, based on their income and assets. Throw in the effects of the Community Reinvestment Act, which required lenders to serve under-served groups, and zoning and land-use laws that pushed housing into limited space in the suburbs and exurbs driving up prices in the process and you have the ingredients of a credit-fueled and regulatory-directed housing boom and bust.
All told, huge amounts of wealth and capital poured into producing houses as a result of these political machinations. The Case-Shiller Index clearly shows unprecedented increases in home prices prior to the bust in From , there had been no significant growth in the price of residential real estate. In contrast, the decade that followed saw skyrocketing prices. Real estate investments are taxed at a much lower rate than other investments. The differential tax treatment of capital gains made housing a relatively better investment than the alternatives.
Although tax cuts are desirable for promoting economic growth, when politicians tinker with the tax code to favor the sorts of investments they think people should make, we should not be surprised if market distortions result. Former Fed chair Alan Greenspan had made it clear that the Fed would not stand idly by whenever a crisis threatened to cause a major devaluation of financial assets. Instead, it would respond by providing liquidity to stem the fall.
Greenspan declared there was little the Fed could do to prevent asset bubbles but that it could always cushion the fall when those bubbles burst. As housing prices began to rise, and in some areas rise enormously, investors saw opportunities to create new financial instruments based on those rising housing prices. These instruments constituted the next stage of the boom in this boom-bust cycle, and their eventual failure became the major focus of the bust.
Banks and other players in the financial markets capitalized on the housing boom to create a variety of new instruments. These new instruments would enrich many but eventually lose their value, bringing down several major companies with them. They were all premised on the belief that housing prices would continue to rise, which would enable people who had taken out the new mortgages to continue to be able to pay.
Mortgages with low or even nonexistent down payments appeared. It adds a silly protusion at the back, and I'm sure they could have come up with a better design. But do get a 6-cell. This thing has better battery life than my N, and it shows With the 6-cell, it's still pretty light, slightly less heavy than a thick hardcover book.
Unless you don't know Linux at all, ditch the Linpus that comes with it. It's not that bad, but it's not that interesting either. There isn't that much software available for it compared to, say, Debian, Ubuntu or the latest Fedora Linpus is based on an old Fedora release.
I initially considered installing Ubuntu, but in the end, I opted for Debian. I'm very satisfied with the boot time about 20 seconds, not visibly much more than Linpus and hardware support full, after some monkeying around. To install Debian on the AAO, the best hints are on on the Debian Wiki , these guys' blog it was actually very, very helpful , and the kernel built by this guy follow the link in the message. I had to monkey around with the kernel sources because I wanted to use madwifi to get the LED workings, and the headers package wasn't working right, but besides that, everything was very smooth.
To get the external screen working at full resolution, I added the modeline as explained somewhere I can't find the link. The modeline has to be added to the Monitor section. And then xrandr will see the right resolutions. I think it reads the resolutions from the built-in panel and ignores the external monitor; looks like a bug in the Intel video driver.
To get the screen switching functionality, I used arandr to create the scripts, and tweaked them a bit. In xfce, it looks like xfwm4 is a bit dumb when the monitor is added after X is started. So, the script to switch to the dual-screen configuration looks like this:. And everything works find. It's best to boot X without the external monitor plugged in, or Thunar has very tiny fonts when you unplug the VGA and switch to internal panel only.
Don't ask me why; there might still be some glitches in the RandR extension. Still, RandR is really, really cool, and it looks even more flexible than many Windows XP display drivers dual screen support is sometimes spotty--the worst part is, it's really driver dependent Install was OK, but installing the updates was really, really slow.
I thought it was the SSD that was slow, and maybe that's part of it So, YMMV. If you're a heavy XP user, the hard disk may be a better choice. The external drive is a good compromise; I'll use it for heavy data crunching. But still, Windows really likes writing all over the disk. Use FAT32 and no swap. I still haven't tested the camera or the card readers.
When SSDs become cheaper, I'll swap the built-in one. In general, it's not that slow, but once in a while the whole system locks up waiting for the disk, and that's really annoying.
Still, I like the SSD--it stays cool and boot times are really, really good with it. Heck, it boots faster than the fancy Core 2 Duo laptop the office provided me, and that uses a RPM disk drive! It's still somewhat fiddly to install other OSs on that thing.
But it's workable. Linpus is OK, just not as nice as. In Canada, you get the weirdo keyboard with an extra key. However, I don't find it that bad, it's actually quite workable. I just hit the backslash instead of the Enter key once in a while. Nothing too bad, really. There's this fan control thing that is suggested online, but it doesn't seem to work too well with the latest BIOS fan keeps turning on and off. The fan isn't that loud anyhow; it's not really noticeable.
Maybe I lucked out and got a version with a nice fan. Mobile computing is in , folks. We now have enough power at low enough prices that you'll see small, light lapops everywhere. And I cannot emphasize enough how small and light the device really is. The only thing that might stop it is the CPU makers' fear that it'll cannibalize the sales on their high-power processors.
But I think that'll only delay the inevitable. Low power CPUs are now very powerful, and make no mistake, people want low power. Being free of the power cable was already very cool with the N, but now, I have my full desktop's power in my hands, and it's just The future of computing may not be determined by trying to beat the physical limits so Moore's law can still be applied. I think it'll be about finding more power-efficient ways of eking out a lot of computing power in small packages, at least for the end users.
The big CPUs will be relegated to server racks, where they'll serve the computing power remotely. Or maybe not. I'm not tech pundit, I don't pretend to know the future. But it's a really nice way to organize one's work, in any case.
This is usually a technology oriented blog, but I'd be a very poor father if technology were my only concern. She's a robust baby, with very, very good lungs we can attest to that every time she wakes up , drinks too fast sometimes, and has a wonderful smile when I change her diaper.
As a parent, you have to learn to be patient. Sometimes, I get very frustrated, and then feel bad about it because I feel I should have more patience, more skill calming her down. But the minute after she gives a really wide smile and coos, and then I feel like everything is all right with the world. Despite the crazy economic times and the uncertainty about the whole financial system, I find that I'm still optimistic.
I'll work hard to leave her a nice world, and the difficulties we live right now will no doubt yield some good in the end. Hopefully a world that is more just, less crassly materialistic, and focused on protecting the middle class rather than the rich and powerful. One can only hope. Society is a pendulum, and it has swung too far to the advantage of scoundrels and con artists.
It's only a matter of time before it swings back, and I hope I'll live to see it so that's the world my daughter will inherit. Regardless, I'll be there for her, always. And that has to be worth something.
Well, I'm at it again. I wanted to read mangas on the N, but the only working application, Comix a Python application was somewhat slow. Not the Python code itself, which was actually quite fast, but rather the overall approach.
You see, to speed up processing, Comix would always unzip the whole comic archive file cbz or cbr in a temporary directory and read from there. It does make page flipping faster. The approach is acceptable on the desktop, where at worse, we're talking about 50 MB of temp disk space for really large archives.
Not an issue, even on my relatively small by today's standards 80 GB drive. On the tablet, though, not only is it problematic you get MB of drive space and that's it! Expect minutes before you see the first page, and meanwhile Comix is hung.
And woe to you if it crashes—you'll have to recover all this space at the command line. The crash thing didn't bother me too much, but the slow boot time did.
I read fast , especially manga which tend to have relatively little dialog per image. After swimming through numerous Java applications useless on the tablet , there were two candidates: cbrPager and Comical. Comical initially looked more interesting. It embeds libunzip, unrar through a special exception to the GPL in the license and did all image decoding in memory, which I thought could be faster.
I worried that this would be slow. Also, cbrPager used the Gnome libraries, some of which are not available on Maemo, and I didn't really expect to have to rewrite parts of the UI layer. But unfortunately, Comical is written on top of wxGTK, which is a bit problematic on Maemo there's a port, but it's hard to get from a repository. So I decided to take a look at cbrPager and do an initial "straight port" using the Gnome canvas and disabling parts of the interface, just to see whether it was fast enough to be a workable base and not force me to deal with wxGTK.
I Hildonized the toolbar and main window, which was relatively quick. Unfortunately, one of the features that's really useful for tablet-based comic book readers is rotation. Comix had it, together with very high quality antialiasing. A small modification to the cbrPager source gave me antialiasing and rotation, but not both at the same time; rotated images looked really, really bad.
Since I wasn't too happy with using the Gnome canvas anyways, and that it was the last Gnome dependency left I had had to remove all others , I decided to try to find a nice way to replace it. Initially, I was quite ambitious, thinking I'd do raw updates to the main widget. Looking over in the gdk-pixbuf library, it looked possible, as that library had all the bells and whistles I needed: antialiasing with selectable algorithm, automatic rotation, image scaling, etc.
In the end, I decided to look for a plain image viewer initially I though gqview, since it has the features I'm looking for and see if I could scavenge their widget.
In the end, I found GtkImageView , which had a ready-made widget and was only lacking rotation. I added rotation and was a happy camper. Well, almost :- I had introduced a memory leak that ate all the RAM of the tablet really, really quickly. Fixing it was really simple, but that didn't happen before I crashed my tablet several times in an effort to figure out what exactly was going on From the front-end point of view, I then added a few tidbits: scrolling through direct pen usage, auto-rotate, bookmarks my wife asked for that one really fast All of those were pretty easy to add, which speaks volumes about the initial cbrPager code's organisation hint: it's pretty nice.
I then got annoyed that users were forced to install unzip. One nice feature of Comical is that it embeds the unzip code. So I wanted to do the same. For RAR files, I chose not to do it right away because of licensing problems.
To do that, I needed to extract the archive reading logic. It was embedded in command line use. So I chose to encapsulate it in a gobject. This was probably a bit overkill, but it made sense with respect to the use of the GtkImageView gobject. Once that was done, it was really easy to get it to work with direct calls to the unzip library.
I had wanted to extract the image bits in memory and decode completely in memory, thus removing the need for a temporary file. I didn't do it that way right then because there were reports of really slow decoding when doing that through pixbuf loaders. Since image decoding was actually slower than archive reading, I decided to pass for now.
Writing a gobject was kinda cool, but those things are really quite heavy Since the same 3 objects are reused throughout the application one object per supported archive type , the overhead is negligible, but if I had to do it again I'd just go with a struct and function pointers, although it feels kind of silly to do that given that there's already gobjects in the application.
You can see the announcement on the Internet Tablet Talk forum. I love rock music very much, but I don't like pay so much for it. For me best support from you - become Premium. I work only with Filecat. Freedom by Neil Young. Long Way by Eddie Vedder. Matter of Time by Eddie Vedder.
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